Results and Analysis

Firstly, congratulations to President-elect Obama.  He ran an excellent campaign and deserved to win.  Obama managed to win without the youth vote (18% of voters were ages 18-29; in 2004 that number was 17%).

Secondly, the democrats most likely will not control 60 or more seats in the Senate.  CNN is projecting that republicans control 40 seats, with 4 races still undecided (Georgia, Minnesota, Oregon, & Alaska).  It is likely that at least one republican will win one of those races.  Though their losses have been severe, republicans should breathe  a sigh of relief that the democrats will not have a filibuster-proof majority in the Senate.  It is also possible that Joe Lieberman will leave/be kicked out of the Democratic caucus, becoming an independent or republican.

In addition, North Carolina now has its first female governor, Beverly Perdue, the former Lt. Governor.  North Carolina’s governership has been held by a democrat for 88 years in the past 100.

Though all precincts are reporting, North Carolina has not declared a winner of its electoral votes.  Obama is up by approximately 12,000 votes, and provisional ballots are being counted before the election is certified.

Early Voting in North Carolina

Early voting began in North Carolina last week.  While the actual votes will not be tabulated until Election Day, it is possible to observe some trends from initial early voting turnout data.

For instance, over 52% of early voters in North Carolina are registered Democrats, while only 29% are registered Republicans.  This would suggest that democrats are more excited about voting this year than republicans.  On the other hand, when the data is broken into age groups, young people are least likely to vote early: only 13.2% of early voters are in the 18-29 age group, the smallest turnout of any age group.  It is widely held that Senator Obama needs the youth vote, especially in a battleground state like North Carolina.  Of course, Obama won’t need the youth vote if McCain doesn’t get any age groups to vote for him.

Obama Wins 97% of the Vote…

… in a world-wide Electoral College, according to The Economist.  Senator Obama managed to win every country except for Algeria, Sudan, the Congo, Namibia, and Iraq.  Cuba and Macedonia remain tied.  Afghanistan is strongly pro-Obama at 85%.  Iraq is strongly pro-McCain, voting for the Republican 60% of the time.  McCain’s strongest support comes from Iraq; Obama recorded 100% of votes from Cambodia, Cameroon, Haiti, Montenegro, Kyrgyzstan, and Maldives.  Obama received 81% of the vote in the United States.  Obama won 19 of the 20 largest countries (by Electoral vote allocation), losing only in the Congo.

According to this blog, The Economist is set to officially endorse Obama tomorrow.  They endorsed Bush in 2000 and Kerry in 2004.

Additionally, over at Pollster.com, it is quite easy to see the long slow decline of McCain in North Carolina.  McCain could still easily win the state since the differential is less than 2%, but the very fact that he has to work for North Carolina is a bad sign for any possibility of success there.

Edit: The Economist has officially endorsed Senator Obama, saying

the Democratic candidate has clearly shown that he offers the better chance of restoring America’s self-confidence. But we acknowledge it is a gamble. Given Mr Obama’s inexperience, the lack of clarity about some of his beliefs and the prospect of a stridently Democratic Congress, voting for him is a risk. Yet it is one America should take, given the steep road ahead.

Of McCain, The Economist said

[O]n the great issue of the campaign, the financial crisis, he has seemed all at sea, emitting panic and indecision. Mr McCain has never been particularly interested in economics, but, unlike Mr Obama, he has made little effort to catch up or to bring in good advisers.

They noted that had the John McCain of 2000 been running, he would have received their endorsement.

Obama/Biden’s worst enemy is… Obama/Biden?

• “Spread the wealth”
• “Mark my words. It will not be six months before the world tests Barack Obama like they did John Kennedy”

Standard GPO campaign tactics? Nope. The first quote comes from Senator Obama himself in response to “Joe the Plumber” as to why higher taxes on those making more than $250,000/year are necessary (“It’s good for everybody.”). The second is from his running mate, Senator Biden. Perhaps we should not be so surprised; everyone knew it was only a matter of time before Biden opened his mouth and shoved his foot in. It is still at least somewhat disconcerting that he would essentially parrot Senator McCain’s campaign theme: Obama’s lake of experience.

Both quotes can be used effectively by the McCain camp. The first will help rally young, college educated professionals who are already, or looking to enter, the $250,000+ tax bracket to McCain. The second, paired with Biden’s primary claim that Obama is not experienced enough to be president should help McCain with the so-called “blue collar” voters.

The Campaign Enters the Final Stretch

Some random thoughts on the final debate, the election (nationwide & NC), and some other stuff.

• I created this word map of the transcript of the final debate.  I hoped it would be a better representation of the topics of the debate than it turned out to be.  There are too many common words counted, such as senator, going, now, etc.  I still like the effect though.
• North Carolina as an unexpected battleground state is starting to make the news.  According to RCP, Senator Obama holds an average lead of 1.2% in the polls.  I don’t think this lead is enough for an Obama win; Senator McCain’s better-than-expected performance in the last debate will help him scratch out a win in the Tar Heel state.  But at what cost?  It would be disasterous to lose those fifteen electoral votes, so it’s not a question of whether McCain will fight for the state or not.  But I’m sure McCain’s campaign did not anticipate having to wage an agressive contest there back in the spring.  Does he have enough cash to afford such a fight?  Spending any more money in NC is going to drain resources from other states, so will fighting there make McCain weak everywhere?
• Kay Hagan is leading Elizabeth Dole in most polls by an average of 3.4% according to RCP.  This is bad for Dole.  Whereas McCain can hope for a Bradley cushion in the polls, Dole has no such luck.  Of course, 3.4% is within most poll’s margin of error, but with three weeks to the election, it appears Dole’s campaign is running out of steam.
  I actually think this might be the more important race for Republicans now.  In my view, it is highly likely that Obama will beat McCain.  If we assume that, the real danger for the Republican party is the Democrats gaining a filibuster-proof majority in the Senate.  A Democratic House, Senate, and White House with filibuster-proof majorities is the ultimate nightmare for conservatives and those who love adversarial politics.  There are those who would point out that from 2002-06 Republicans held all three branches of government.  But those majorities were not filibuster-proof.  Republicans would hold absolutely no power for at least two years.  In the meantime, Democrats could pass any number of laws intolerable to republicans, such as liberal immigration reform.  Therefore, it might be more important for Republicans to put its main effort into retaining Congressional seats than to contest the White House.
  Of course, there are those who, like me, hold that such a stunning reversal from the heady days of 2002 might be a good thing for conservatives.  True conservatives (paleo vs. neo conservatives) haven’t had a party in which they’ve felt welcome since 1994.  Most small government, fiscal conservatives maintain that the Republicans in power from 2002 to 2006 were RINOs — Republicans in Name Only.  RINOs are the republican version of tax and spend democrats: don’t-tax and spend-it-anyway republicans.
  Where am I going with this?  Well, if we assume that the democrats take control of the legislative and executive branches in a commanding fashion, then it might lead to some radical changes in the party.  If the defeat is severe enough, the party will definitely look to replace some leadership.  Younger, more energetic leaders will emerge.  If we’re lucky, the struggle for leadership will lead to internicine fighting and distinct wings emerge within the party.  Once the dust settles by 2010, the republican herd will have been culled into a lean, agile political machine capable of countering the current youth movement of the Democratic Party.  (I should note that I was hoping for Ron Paul to do well enough in the primaries to have a legitimate mathematical shot at the nomination and then stage a convention fight for it.  I thought that might be the catalyst for the Grand Old Party to finally split into its constituent wings and a viable third party to emerge.)
  So anyway, that is why the Republican Party needs to decide whether it is worth fighting for the White House at the expense of the House and Senate.  I admit, it would be a stunning admission if the Republicans were to tacitly concede the race with three weeks to go to focus on Congressional races in an effort to ensure a divided government.  However, it must be at least considered.

This post is much longer than I anticipated; if I have time I might split it up and do a couple of posts focusing on what the Republicans’ strategy should be in the coming days and weeks.  Right now I need to go to sleep and focus on the upcoming beatdown of Michigan by Penn State.

Immediate Debate Reactions

I am watching the debate online right now at Hulu.com and I am just going to list my comments as I watch, starting at the beginning.

• Though not important, I am continually surprised that Senator McCain does not wear a flag pin, given the brouhaha over flag pins earlier this year.
• Both candidates say they are for the “middle class.” I would like a candidate that is for every American, regardless of their “class.”
• McCain finally made a point about lowering business taxes and its impact on luring businesses to the US. I felt that he never really made this point clear in past debates.
• Obama seems to be using the term “investing” to mean government spending.
• McCain says he wants a spending freeze and promises to use line item vetoes to achieve that.
  • Obama responds that a spending freeze is too broad and needs a finer touch – the “scalpel.” However, he goes on to say that earmarks are too small to worry about. That just seems incongruous.
• McCain just forcefully said he’s not President Bush and that if Obama wanted to run against Bush, he should have run four years ago. What took McCain so long to bust out that line? He should have been saying that all summer.
• I think Bob Schieffer is, so far, the best moderator of the debates. He lets the candidates to respond to each other and just “lets them play,” to use a sports term.
• Is the campaign really so negative? I do not think there is anything comparable to the Swift Boat ads of 2004 or the shenanigans of the 2000 South Carolina republican primary. Particularly in the age of campaign finance reform, it is impossible to control one’s supporters (527 groups, etc), from where most negative ads come.
• Both candidates think we can eliminate oil imports from the Middle East and Venezuela within 10 years. Really? That seems incredibly optimistic. Until American transportation moves to electric vehicles, it will continue to require oil. Nuclear, solar, and wind power plants will not reduce that usage because they produce electricity, not gasoline.
• Obama just said that preventative medicine would save the government money in the end. I disagree; preventative medicine, if it increases life expectancy, would actually increase government expenses because people would be living longer and consuming more government services such as Social Security and Medicaid/Medicare. Obviously, we need to live shorter lives.
  • As an aside, why does anyone believe the government will manage universal health care better than its existing health care programs?
  • The health care portion of this debate is just a repeat from the first two debates. Seriously, it was almost word for word! Why even bother when neither candidate is willing to actually address the issue?
• I fear I am starting to sound too partisan, but Obama is talking nonsense about establishing Senate “oversight” of the Supreme Court. That is completely and utterly ridiculous. The Supreme Court is called such for a reason. Because you disagree with a decision does not provide grounds for trying to implement a legislative check on the Supreme Court’s Constitutional powers.

Overall, I think Obama won the debate simply because it was not disastrous for him. McCain was the one who had to have an incredible performance, which he just did not have. I think he was too forceful in trying to portray Obama as naive and inexperienced. It bordered on rudeness and was unbecoming.

Palin vs. Biden – Fight

My quick thoughts about the debate:

1. Governor Palin did not fare badly against the more experienced Biden. She held her own and even went after Biden a few times. Obviously, she did not dominate the debate, but it was not a disastrous appearance for her like some interviews she has given recently.
2. Biden did not have any gaffes (that I noticed) or outbursts. Unfortunately, this made for a rather dull debate.
3. Both candidates had their share of fibs or truth-stretching. It would be nice, in my opinion, for the organization holding the debates, the Commission on Presidential Debates, to have a dedicated team of fact-checkers examining claims made during the debate. When an egregious lie is told, the fact-checkers could notify the moderator who could ask the candidate in question if they would like to revise or clarify their statement.
   I think this would be useful because as of now, candidates can pretty much claim whatever they wish during a debate and not get called on it immediately. This puts the burden of examining the factuality of claims on the shoulders of the public, the majority of whom don’t have the time or inclination to do so.
4. The debate should have had the same structure as the first presidential debate. Ninety seconds is only enough for a sound bite, not meaningful dialogue. Instead of the nine minute segments of the first debate, candidates had only a minute and a half to present their views or rebut their opponents.
5. It would be nice if the moderator was allowed to cut off a candidate if they veered away from the point of a question. Both were guilty of this tonight, but Palin particularly so. At one point, she was asked what she thought her weakness was and she responded by talking about how great John McCain’s energy policy is. Why can’t the moderator stop such shenanigans?

Of course, this was the only scheduled debate between the vice presidential candidates. The next presidential debate is scheduled for next Wednesday evening at 8:00pm and will focus on domestic and economic policy. It will be hosted by Bob Schieffer of CBS.

Latest Rasmussen Poll

The latest Rasmussen poll of likely voters in North Carolina is out. Unfortunately, it was conducted before the first debate, so it does not reflect any changes that may result from the debate.

The poll is notable because it is the first time Senator Obama pulls ahead of McCain in North Carolina even though it is only by two points, and the margin of error is ±4.5. It certainly appears that McCain’s convention bounce in the Tar Heel state is over.

As an aside, many pundits have speculated on whether enough white voters would support Obama for him to win the election. Some have even claimed that the latent racism of whites is the only possible way for McCain to win. Fair enough. They can say whatever they want.

But what if I propose the opposite? What if the only reason for McCain to lose (in NC at least) is the racism of blacks?  The Rasmussen poll actually suggests that this scenario might be more likely:

In the Tar Heel State, Obama is supported by 98% of African-Americans while McCain currently earns the vote from 64% of White voters.

North Carolina has roughly 5.4 million registered voters; assuming percentage of blacks in the general population (22%) is similar to the ratio of registered voters, 98% equates to about 1.2 million registered African American voters. I’m sure John McCain would benefit from some of those votes.

I’m certainly not trying to claim that racism doesn’t exist. Of course it does. But it is ridiculous and disingenuous to try to portray racism as something of which only whites are guilty.

Thoughts on the Debate

I missed the first twenty minutes of the debate tonight, but here are my thoughts on what I did manage to catch:

1. The new debate format (90 minutes, with nine 9 minute “issue segments” where the moderator can ask relevant questions and candidates can even question each other) is a great improvement on previous debate formats in my opinion.  It’s not perfect (candidates still tend to try and talk over each other at times), but is much better than previous debates with short two minute canned talking points.  I was expecting this new format to favor Senator Obama and his obvious rhetorical skill, but Senator McCain certainly held his own.  The back and forth seemed quite smooth and overall, the debate seemed to pass much faster than previous presidential debates.
2. Senator McCain’s theme for the night was obviously Senator Obama’s lack of experience and “youthful naïveté”.  Every chance he got, McCain pointed out that Obama “just doesn’t understand” an issue or policy.  I’m not sure how effective this is, as it started to become overbearing near the end of the debate.
3. On the other hand, Senator Obama’s motif for the night was to bring everything home, so to speak.  He consistently related everything to America’s engorged budget.  He hammered home the point that we are spending $10b/month in Iraq while America’s infrastructure is in need of repair.
4. Obama was not the instigant we thought he might be in the debate, attempting to put on display McCain’s famous temper.  I think that was a wise choice.  Goating a war hero on national television probably doesn’t fit well with Obama’s desired image of the leader of the “post-politics” era.
5. McCain looked well, certainly much better than he has on the campaign trail lately:
6. Obama also looked good, and was even wearing a flag pin (while McCain didn’t):
7. Of course, this was supposed to be the foreign policy debate; however, the economy dominated the early part of the debate.  Jim Lehrer (the moderator) vainly tried to get a solid answer out of either candidate about how the proposed bailout would affect their proposed budgets and on what items they would be willing to compromise.  Both dodged that question to focus on broader budget issues: McCain focused on his desire to cut spending while Obama stressed certain fundamental programs that have to be funded, in his eyes.
8. This being a presidential debate, neither candidate made any point of limiting presidential power and returning some power to Congress.  Of course, this was to be expected, but it is still interesting to hear candidates talk of “their” budgets and policy proposals that have to originate in the House.

Next week, on October 2, the vice-presidential candidate debate will be held at Washington University in St. Louis, Missouri and moderated by PBS’s Gwen Ifill.

NC Senate Race

In a recent North Carolina poll, an interesting trend emerges: Senator Obama has a lot of work to do if he wants to win the state, and Elizabeth Dole is stumbling towards the end of the senate race against her opponent, Kay Hagan.

First, Elizabeth Dole’s predicament.  Earlier this year, she held a double digit lead in the polls.  However, she has steadily dropped, along with her approval rating in the Senate.  It doesn’t help that registered Democrats outnumber registered Republicans by 4:3.  However, Dole has excellent name recognition, which should help her win a large chunk of votes.  Also, she is known for focusing on local North Carolina issues (always a good thing come election year).  Unfortunately for her, and luckily for Ms. Hagan, is that Senator Dole is a Republican and has to deal with all the baggage that goes along with that.

A quick note about Obama: his favorable rating in the poll is at a miserable 37%, compared to 54% for McCain.  I don’t doubt that Obama will make good use of his massive fundraising ability, but he needs to start before it’s too late.