Post Election Thoughts

The polls were correct and Obama won unsurprisingly, by a considerable margin.  McCain’s final speech was perhaps his best of the entire campaign, a touch too late however. Obama’s speech was his usual eloquent, inspiring rhetoric that he is known for. He is already starting to make plans for the future of the country in Washington and it will be interesting to see if he can bring any true change as he has promised. It was nice to see the nation unite again to scales comparable to the atmosphere of post 9/11. 

AT

Obama has been declared the winner in North Carolina.

I have to say that I really liked John McCain’s concession speech, it was perhaps the best speech I have heard out of him during his entire campaign.

Another interesting thing to note is that Missouri voted for John McCain — the first time since 1956 that they have not picked the winner and only the second time since 1908.

-A.G.

Results and Analysis

Firstly, congratulations to President-elect Obama.  He ran an excellent campaign and deserved to win.  Obama managed to win without the youth vote (18% of voters were ages 18-29; in 2004 that number was 17%).

Secondly, the democrats most likely will not control 60 or more seats in the Senate.  CNN is projecting that republicans control 40 seats, with 4 races still undecided (Georgia, Minnesota, Oregon, & Alaska).  It is likely that at least one republican will win one of those races.  Though their losses have been severe, republicans should breathe  a sigh of relief that the democrats will not have a filibuster-proof majority in the Senate.  It is also possible that Joe Lieberman will leave/be kicked out of the Democratic caucus, becoming an independent or republican.

In addition, North Carolina now has its first female governor, Beverly Perdue, the former Lt. Governor.  North Carolina’s governership has been held by a democrat for 88 years in the past 100.

Though all precincts are reporting, North Carolina has not declared a winner of its electoral votes.  Obama is up by approximately 12,000 votes, and provisional ballots are being counted before the election is certified.

North Carolina Presidential Results

With all precincts reporting this morning, Obama has a very slight lead of apporximately 12,000 votes.  He is leading with 49.8% of the vote to 49.6% for McCain.  Of course, it matters not at this point since Obama has plenty to win.

J.C.

With 8% of the votes in, MSNBC is projecting that Kay Hagan, the Democrat has won the Senate seat for North Carolina.

MSNBS just reported that 24% of North Carolinians reported race being a factor, but of those 24%, thirty percent voted for Obama.

-A.G.

A few notes

More than 2.5 million people in North Carolina voted early which amounts to 40 percent of registered voters in the state.

In the race for the Senate seat, Kay Hagan is given a 4 percent lead over Elizabeth Dole in the latest polls.  It’s basically a toss up.  Things have heated up significantly in this race thanks to an ad released by the Dole campaign last week.  The ad attempts to depict Hagan as an athiest.  The ad says that the Godless Americans PAC held a fundraiser in her honor.  That is damaging enough in a bible belt state, but it gets worse.  The ad shows a picture of Hagan with a soundbyte from a female voice saying “there is no god” implying that Hagan said that.  Hagan has filed a lawsuit for defamation of character over the ad.  Dole has asked the judge to throw it out, calling it frivolous.  It will be interesting to see if this move by Dole works in these hard economic times.  My prediction: Kay Hagan wins by a hair.

The race for president in North Carolina is even closer.  The McCain campaign has doubled up their efforts here in the last few days, and it might pay off.  The latest polls have Obama up by only one point.  However, I am not sure whether the polls have fully taken early voting into account.  Polls closed 30 minutes ago and it is too close to call right now.

Nationally, all the latest polls give Obama the edge.  The widest margin comes from Gallup with 13 while the closest comes from Rasmussen with 6.

Final prediction: Thanks in part to early voting, Obama wins NC, and the presidency.

J.C.

Obama’s Airtime & Predictions

The Obama campaign purchased 30 minutes of airtime on major broadcasting networks across the county last Wednesday, October 29. I was skeptical about what could actually be done in one half hour, but I was very surprised when I watched it. This half hour was possibly the most effective tactic for Obama during the entire race thus far. The program was well planned out, discussed the issues and how Obama claims he would fix problems affecting middle class Americans. For those viewers who have a soft heart, he likely captured their vote and reaffirmed the votes of his supporters. Much of the way the segment was executed showed Obama more as a fellow citizen and everyday American rather than a super power candidate. The only thing I could think of is how many thousands of votes he gained every minute of the 30 that ticked by. 

My predictions for polling results in regards to North Carolina is that Obama will pull out an upset due to McCain’s lack of campaigning in the state for such a long time. Overall, I think the election will be much closer than many people think. I predict Obama will win the popular vote.

AT

Final predictions:

Obama wins Ohio, Pennsylvania.

McCain takes North Carolina.

Obama wins presidency.

-A.G.

McCain’s Last Resort

Senator John McCain is scheduled to appear on Saturday Night Live tonight.  A final effort to make a failed campaign strategy for the general election actually work.  He made the rounds on talk shows often during the primaries.  However, McCain has not appeared much on the late night comedy shows during the general election campaign which was a big mistake.  These talk shows give candidiates an opportunity to showcase their personality.  Personality can make a difference with undecided voters, which McCain needs if he is to have any chance at winning.  McCain demonstrated that he is able to poke fun at himself during the primaries, something he must do to make this appearance effective.

I just heard about another poll on the evening news measuring voter confidence.  It shows that registered Democrats have high confidence while registered Republicans have low confidence, which could have a negative impact on Republican turnout.  I do not have any specific numbers from the poll.

J.C.