Will the Prediction Come True?

Analysts have been predicting the African American and black turnout for Obama all year. They have predicted that these individuals would come to the polls in numbers never seen before. Is this just been a bunch of hype? Current early polling would suggest otherwise, at least in North Carolina. Of the voters who have submitted votes early, 31% have been African American or black. On its face this may not seem like a big deal, but when they make up only 21% of the population in the state this is a big deal. Furthermore, African American’s and black’s only represented 19% of the 2004 vote. If these rates of voting continue analysts will not only be correct in their prediction, but underestimated the turnout as well.

AT

After the Republican convention it looked as though John McCain would run away with the state of North Carolina. The race has tightened up significantly since then with recent polls showing Obama on top, but just barely. If polls are accurate, Obama/Biden have 255 electoral votes locked up. If they are able to win North Carolina’s 15 electoral votes they will need to win only one more small state such as New Hampshire, which is leaning Democratic. The McCain camp seems to have its work cut out for it. In order to acquire enough electoral votes to win the presidency, they will need to win all the states that are currently strongly in favor of McCain (137 votes), the states that are leaning towards McCain (20 votes), all the states considered “toss-ups” (75 votes, including North Carolina’s 15), and 39 more votes, meaning he will have to take some votes (39 to be exact) from states that are leaning Democratic. To take 39 votes he would need to win Ohio (20), Virginia (13), and Colorado (9), or else Ohio, New Hampshire, Virginia, and either Colorado or New Mexico. In other words, McCain needs to take all of the states he should win, all the states he might win, and more than half the states he probably won’t win.

-A.G.

Obama/Biden’s worst enemy is… Obama/Biden?

• “Spread the wealth”
• “Mark my words. It will not be six months before the world tests Barack Obama like they did John Kennedy”

Standard GPO campaign tactics? Nope. The first quote comes from Senator Obama himself in response to “Joe the Plumber” as to why higher taxes on those making more than $250,000/year are necessary (“It’s good for everybody.”). The second is from his running mate, Senator Biden. Perhaps we should not be so surprised; everyone knew it was only a matter of time before Biden opened his mouth and shoved his foot in. It is still at least somewhat disconcerting that he would essentially parrot Senator McCain’s campaign theme: Obama’s lake of experience.

Both quotes can be used effectively by the McCain camp. The first will help rally young, college educated professionals who are already, or looking to enter, the $250,000+ tax bracket to McCain. The second, paired with Biden’s primary claim that Obama is not experienced enough to be president should help McCain with the so-called “blue collar” voters.