Some random thoughts on the final debate, the election (nationwide & NC), and some other stuff.
I created this word map of the transcript of the final debate. I hoped it would be a better representation of the topics of the debate than it turned out to be. There are too many common words counted, such as senator, going, now, etc. I still like the effect though.
- North Carolina as an unexpected battleground state is starting to make the news. According to RCP, Senator Obama holds an average lead of 1.2% in the polls. I don’t think this lead is enough for an Obama win; Senator McCain’s better-than-expected performance in the last debate will help him scratch out a win in the Tar Heel state. But at what cost? It would be disasterous to lose those fifteen electoral votes, so it’s not a question of whether McCain will fight for the state or not. But I’m sure McCain’s campaign did not anticipate having to wage an agressive contest there back in the spring. Does he have enough cash to afford such a fight? Spending any more money in NC is going to drain resources from other states, so will fighting there make McCain weak everywhere?
- Kay Hagan is leading Elizabeth Dole in most polls by an average of 3.4% according to RCP. This is bad for Dole. Whereas McCain can hope for a Bradley cushion in the polls, Dole has no such luck. Of course, 3.4% is within most poll’s margin of error, but with three weeks to the election, it appears Dole’s campaign is running out of steam.
I actually think this might be the more important race for Republicans now. In my view, it is highly likely that Obama will beat McCain. If we assume that, the real danger for the Republican party is the Democrats gaining a filibuster-proof majority in the Senate. A Democratic House, Senate, and White House with filibuster-proof majorities is the ultimate nightmare for conservatives and those who love adversarial politics. There are those who would point out that from 2002-06 Republicans held all three branches of government. But those majorities were not filibuster-proof. Republicans would hold absolutely no power for at least two years. In the meantime, Democrats could pass any number of laws intolerable to republicans, such as liberal immigration reform. Therefore, it might be more important for Republicans to put its main effort into retaining Congressional seats than to contest the White House.
Of course, there are those who, like me, hold that such a stunning reversal from the heady days of 2002 might be a good thing for conservatives. True conservatives (paleo vs. neo conservatives) haven’t had a party in which they’ve felt welcome since 1994. Most small government, fiscal conservatives maintain that the Republicans in power from 2002 to 2006 were RINOs — Republicans in Name Only. RINOs are the republican version of tax and spend democrats: don’t-tax and spend-it-anyway republicans.
Where am I going with this? Well, if we assume that the democrats take control of the legislative and executive branches in a commanding fashion, then it might lead to some radical changes in the party. If the defeat is severe enough, the party will definitely look to replace some leadership. Younger, more energetic leaders will emerge. If we’re lucky, the struggle for leadership will lead to internicine fighting and distinct wings emerge within the party. Once the dust settles by 2010, the republican herd will have been culled into a lean, agile political machine capable of countering the current youth movement of the Democratic Party. (I should note that I was hoping for Ron Paul to do well enough in the primaries to have a legitimate mathematical shot at the nomination and then stage a convention fight for it. I thought that might be the catalyst for the Grand Old Party to finally split into its constituent wings and a viable third party to emerge.)
So anyway, that is why the Republican Party needs to decide whether it is worth fighting for the White House at the expense of the House and Senate. I admit, it would be a stunning admission if the Republicans were to tacitly concede the race with three weeks to go to focus on Congressional races in an effort to ensure a divided government. However, it must be at least considered.
This post is much longer than I anticipated; if I have time I might split it up and do a couple of posts focusing on what the Republicans’ strategy should be in the coming days and weeks. Right now I need to go to sleep and focus on the upcoming beatdown of Michigan by Penn State.
