Early voting in NC

North Carolina has extended its early voting deadline to 5 PM Saturday. Palin will be speaking in Raleigh at 4 PM on Saturday. So far about a third of registered North Carolinians have voted. Personally I feel that early voting shouldn’t be used. Early voting means that not everyone is voting with the same information (for example, how would it change people’s votes if another terrorist attack ocurred on American soil on Nov. 3?). Furthermore, even if official results aren’t released, exit polls might influence people from voting for a particular candidate if exit polling shows that the candidate has lower chances than expected.

-A.G.

Early Voting in North Carolina

Early voting began in North Carolina last week.  While the actual votes will not be tabulated until Election Day, it is possible to observe some trends from initial early voting turnout data.

For instance, over 52% of early voters in North Carolina are registered Democrats, while only 29% are registered Republicans.  This would suggest that democrats are more excited about voting this year than republicans.  On the other hand, when the data is broken into age groups, young people are least likely to vote early: only 13.2% of early voters are in the 18-29 age group, the smallest turnout of any age group.  It is widely held that Senator Obama needs the youth vote, especially in a battleground state like North Carolina.  Of course, Obama won’t need the youth vote if McCain doesn’t get any age groups to vote for him.

Obama Wins 97% of the Vote…

… in a world-wide Electoral College, according to The Economist.  Senator Obama managed to win every country except for Algeria, Sudan, the Congo, Namibia, and Iraq.  Cuba and Macedonia remain tied.  Afghanistan is strongly pro-Obama at 85%.  Iraq is strongly pro-McCain, voting for the Republican 60% of the time.  McCain’s strongest support comes from Iraq; Obama recorded 100% of votes from Cambodia, Cameroon, Haiti, Montenegro, Kyrgyzstan, and Maldives.  Obama received 81% of the vote in the United States.  Obama won 19 of the 20 largest countries (by Electoral vote allocation), losing only in the Congo.

According to this blog, The Economist is set to officially endorse Obama tomorrow.  They endorsed Bush in 2000 and Kerry in 2004.

Additionally, over at Pollster.com, it is quite easy to see the long slow decline of McCain in North Carolina.  McCain could still easily win the state since the differential is less than 2%, but the very fact that he has to work for North Carolina is a bad sign for any possibility of success there.

Edit: The Economist has officially endorsed Senator Obama, saying

the Democratic candidate has clearly shown that he offers the better chance of restoring America’s self-confidence. But we acknowledge it is a gamble. Given Mr Obama’s inexperience, the lack of clarity about some of his beliefs and the prospect of a stridently Democratic Congress, voting for him is a risk. Yet it is one America should take, given the steep road ahead.

Of McCain, The Economist said

[O]n the great issue of the campaign, the financial crisis, he has seemed all at sea, emitting panic and indecision. Mr McCain has never been particularly interested in economics, but, unlike Mr Obama, he has made little effort to catch up or to bring in good advisers.

They noted that had the John McCain of 2000 been running, he would have received their endorsement.

AP Poll

A recent poll by the Associated Press gives Obama a wide lead in some traditionally Republican states and some swing states.  Obama is up in Ohio 48% to McCain’s 41%.  Obama has a 9 point lead in Colorado, a 7 point lead in Virgina, and a 12 point lead in Nevada.  The poll also showed that North Carolina and Florida are still competitive with Obama only up 2 points in both states. 

Early voting has given Obama a clear advantage.  In Pennsylvania and Virgina, Obama has a 45 point lead in early voting.

J.C.

Will the Prediction Come True?

Analysts have been predicting the African American and black turnout for Obama all year. They have predicted that these individuals would come to the polls in numbers never seen before. Is this just been a bunch of hype? Current early polling would suggest otherwise, at least in North Carolina. Of the voters who have submitted votes early, 31% have been African American or black. On its face this may not seem like a big deal, but when they make up only 21% of the population in the state this is a big deal. Furthermore, African American’s and black’s only represented 19% of the 2004 vote. If these rates of voting continue analysts will not only be correct in their prediction, but underestimated the turnout as well.

AT

After the Republican convention it looked as though John McCain would run away with the state of North Carolina. The race has tightened up significantly since then with recent polls showing Obama on top, but just barely. If polls are accurate, Obama/Biden have 255 electoral votes locked up. If they are able to win North Carolina’s 15 electoral votes they will need to win only one more small state such as New Hampshire, which is leaning Democratic. The McCain camp seems to have its work cut out for it. In order to acquire enough electoral votes to win the presidency, they will need to win all the states that are currently strongly in favor of McCain (137 votes), the states that are leaning towards McCain (20 votes), all the states considered “toss-ups” (75 votes, including North Carolina’s 15), and 39 more votes, meaning he will have to take some votes (39 to be exact) from states that are leaning Democratic. To take 39 votes he would need to win Ohio (20), Virginia (13), and Colorado (9), or else Ohio, New Hampshire, Virginia, and either Colorado or New Mexico. In other words, McCain needs to take all of the states he should win, all the states he might win, and more than half the states he probably won’t win.

-A.G.

Obama/Biden’s worst enemy is… Obama/Biden?

• “Spread the wealth”
• “Mark my words. It will not be six months before the world tests Barack Obama like they did John Kennedy”

Standard GPO campaign tactics? Nope. The first quote comes from Senator Obama himself in response to “Joe the Plumber” as to why higher taxes on those making more than $250,000/year are necessary (“It’s good for everybody.”). The second is from his running mate, Senator Biden. Perhaps we should not be so surprised; everyone knew it was only a matter of time before Biden opened his mouth and shoved his foot in. It is still at least somewhat disconcerting that he would essentially parrot Senator McCain’s campaign theme: Obama’s lake of experience.

Both quotes can be used effectively by the McCain camp. The first will help rally young, college educated professionals who are already, or looking to enter, the $250,000+ tax bracket to McCain. The second, paired with Biden’s primary claim that Obama is not experienced enough to be president should help McCain with the so-called “blue collar” voters.

Tight Race in NC

The presidential nominees are in for a down to wire competition in NC. With Both parties rallying in the state it is becoming more evenly divided. recent polls such as cnn have Obama at 51 % and Mcain at 47%, Fox news has the polls set at 51-48 in favor of Obama. local tv station in NC, wsoc tv has it a little closer at a 48-46 % in favor of obama. so in all polls it seems to be a close race and with recent protests it should only get tighter.

fd

Would a Mcain/palin win breed violence in NC?

A recent article suggests yes. in recent weeks Mcain and Palin have entered the state of NC and have had at least 4 rallies with violent incidents. At 4 of the rallies there were incident of reporters and the obama supporters being assaulted. First, a reporter was assaulted at a Palin rally held last Thursday at Elon College. Reporter Joe Killian was kicked to the ground by a Palin supporter as he was trying to interview protestors at the event who backed Barack Obama. An MSNBC sound man was hit with a rock thrown by another Palin supporter at the same rally. later in the week over 30 Obama supproters had their tires slashed while at a Obama rally. here is a link to the article with a video clip of such harrasment towards the obama supporters.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/erik-ose/mccain-and-palin-inciting_b_137035.html

fd

Early Voting

North Carolina is one of the states conducting early voting.  It started last Friday and it ends Saturday, November 1st.  The North Carolina Board of Elections says in the the first two days alone, 214,000 people took advantage of the early voting.

Biden’s statewide tour this week appears to be tied into the early voting.  Given the current state of the economy, early voting could tip the scale in favor of Obama in NC.

J.C.