Latest Rasmussen Poll

The latest Rasmussen poll of likely voters in North Carolina is out. Unfortunately, it was conducted before the first debate, so it does not reflect any changes that may result from the debate.

The poll is notable because it is the first time Senator Obama pulls ahead of McCain in North Carolina even though it is only by two points, and the margin of error is ±4.5. It certainly appears that McCain’s convention bounce in the Tar Heel state is over.

As an aside, many pundits have speculated on whether enough white voters would support Obama for him to win the election. Some have even claimed that the latent racism of whites is the only possible way for McCain to win. Fair enough. They can say whatever they want.

But what if I propose the opposite? What if the only reason for McCain to lose (in NC at least) is the racism of blacks?  The Rasmussen poll actually suggests that this scenario might be more likely:

In the Tar Heel State, Obama is supported by 98% of African-Americans while McCain currently earns the vote from 64% of White voters.

North Carolina has roughly 5.4 million registered voters; assuming percentage of blacks in the general population (22%) is similar to the ratio of registered voters, 98% equates to about 1.2 million registered African American voters. I’m sure John McCain would benefit from some of those votes.

I’m certainly not trying to claim that racism doesn’t exist. Of course it does. But it is ridiculous and disingenuous to try to portray racism as something of which only whites are guilty.

NC Voter Turnout Projection

With less than forty days left until the Presidential Election, the North Carolina Board of Elections is predicting a high voter turnout. As opposed to the 2004 election, this years election is supposed to increase by about 5-10 percent, which is more than enough to swing the polling and election results to one side or the other. It seems the Obama campaign may be capitalizing off this more than the Republicans. From what I’ve seen on the news and by word of mouth, Obama campaign workers have been out in full force registering voters for the upcoming election. Logically, if Democratic supporters are the ones out there gathering all the new voters, those new voters are most likely to vote democratic. 

 

This predicted rise in voter turnout for not only North Carolina, but also nationally could also be a result of the growing national economic crisis that is currently plaguing the nation’s financial institutions. With so many people having a personal stake in what happens in the financial market whether it be home mortgages, 401k’s, and/or stocks it’s likely individuals who might not have had such an interest in the election now do. Rising fuel prices also affects a large portion of the voting population. These economic and fuel crisis could be one of the largest reasons for the projected voter turnout increase.

 

AT

Obama and Biden visit NC

Barack Obama and Joe Biden will be campaigning in Greensboro today at noon.

J.C.

Thoughts on the Debate

I missed the first twenty minutes of the debate tonight, but here are my thoughts on what I did manage to catch:

1. The new debate format (90 minutes, with nine 9 minute “issue segments” where the moderator can ask relevant questions and candidates can even question each other) is a great improvement on previous debate formats in my opinion.  It’s not perfect (candidates still tend to try and talk over each other at times), but is much better than previous debates with short two minute canned talking points.  I was expecting this new format to favor Senator Obama and his obvious rhetorical skill, but Senator McCain certainly held his own.  The back and forth seemed quite smooth and overall, the debate seemed to pass much faster than previous presidential debates.
2. Senator McCain’s theme for the night was obviously Senator Obama’s lack of experience and “youthful naïveté”.  Every chance he got, McCain pointed out that Obama “just doesn’t understand” an issue or policy.  I’m not sure how effective this is, as it started to become overbearing near the end of the debate.
3. On the other hand, Senator Obama’s motif for the night was to bring everything home, so to speak.  He consistently related everything to America’s engorged budget.  He hammered home the point that we are spending $10b/month in Iraq while America’s infrastructure is in need of repair.
4. Obama was not the instigant we thought he might be in the debate, attempting to put on display McCain’s famous temper.  I think that was a wise choice.  Goating a war hero on national television probably doesn’t fit well with Obama’s desired image of the leader of the “post-politics” era.
5. McCain looked well, certainly much better than he has on the campaign trail lately:
6. Obama also looked good, and was even wearing a flag pin (while McCain didn’t):
7. Of course, this was supposed to be the foreign policy debate; however, the economy dominated the early part of the debate.  Jim Lehrer (the moderator) vainly tried to get a solid answer out of either candidate about how the proposed bailout would affect their proposed budgets and on what items they would be willing to compromise.  Both dodged that question to focus on broader budget issues: McCain focused on his desire to cut spending while Obama stressed certain fundamental programs that have to be funded, in his eyes.
8. This being a presidential debate, neither candidate made any point of limiting presidential power and returning some power to Congress.  Of course, this was to be expected, but it is still interesting to hear candidates talk of “their” budgets and policy proposals that have to originate in the House.

Next week, on October 2, the vice-presidential candidate debate will be held at Washington University in St. Louis, Missouri and moderated by PBS’s Gwen Ifill.

Breaking News

I was just wondering why Barack Obama and John McCain were still on the campaign trail instead of performing their current duties in Washington during this economic crisis.  Today, John McCain has suspended his campaign so he can go back to Washington.  He has also asked that the debate be postponed, which is an obvious political move.  He has already admitted that he does not understand the economy, so this crisis is not good for him politically.  A major topic of discussion would be the economy in a debate taking place now.

Now for the breaking news part:

Senator Obama is holding a news conference right now.  He is in agreement with Senator McCain when it comes to uniting to solve the economic crisis.  However, he does not think the debate should be postponed.  “I think that it makes sense to present ourselves before the American people.”  “If it turns out that we need to be in Washington, we’ve both got big planes…they can get us from Washington D.C. to Mississippi fairly quickly” he said.

As for going back to Washington, Senator Obama says he has been in contact with Congressional leadership and if he can be put to good use, he is prepared to go back to D.C.

J.C.

Bradley effect

The McCain campaign is expecting a 3 point bump from the so-called Bradley effect, so let’s look at states where this would actually help him.

According to Real clear politics aggregate poll data, this would push McCain over Obama in the states of Colorado, Pennsylvania, Minnesota, and Wisconsin.

However, the Bradley effect likely isn’t a solid three points everywhere, and has traditional had less of an effect in more ethnically diverse states. However, all of these states have white populations of over 87%, so it will be interesting to see how strong the Bradley effect is there.

-A.G.

NC Still Swinging Republican

Today the 21st of september the polls show that NC is still Swinging Republican at a rate of 47% to 41%. Both parties are increasing presence in the state in order to try and pull it their way. but i feel after watching cnn on sat watching both cannidates speak on the stock market and the economy that Mcain will pull ahead. Obama Talked ABout change and how he has Out lines in place and how they will find a solution to all our problems. Dont you think that if you have an outlined plan you already should have a solution in place? they dont talk about their outline because they dont want the American People to know what it is. hes going to raise taxes on large corporations, which will give tax breaks to people who make less than 150,000 a year. Thats Great! But increasing taxes on big corporations will force even more companies to ship there jobs overseas and putting millions of  our people out of jobs. why would these large corporations stay in the US and Pay outrageously high taxes when they can go to china, Japan or India and do the same work and make more money? they wouldn’t, they would say the hell with the US and the American People. I dont blame them i would do the same thing! These Large Corporations That Obama want to increase taxes on are those that make our economy run, without them We’ll be worse off than we are now.

NOw if you watched Mcain talk about the economy he cleary stated his outlines, he step by step stated what he was going to do and how he was going to do it something OBAMA couldnt do!

fd

Obama in NC

Today, Obama visited North Carolina to campaign in an ever tightening race. With the poll gap drawing near even, it is clear Obama sees an opportunity for additional electoral and popular votes. Michelle Obama and Joe Biden have also made stops in North Carolina this past week. This shows that the Obama campaign is well aware that they may be able to sneak out a win in NC, a state initially thought would go Republican. 

 

This increased attention to North Carolina has not gone unnoticed by the McCain campaign. Later Sunday, McCain’s campaign issued statements that they were upping personnel in the state. Did McCain think NC was going to be a sure win and is just now realizing the contrary? 

 

In regards to Michelle Obama’s visit to North Carolina earlier this week, she urged voters not to vote for someone because “she’s cute” or “I like that guy,” both obvious slams to McCain and Palin (http://www.wcnc.com/news/politics/stories/wcnc-091808-krg-obama.89ddbb97.html). 

It will be interesting to see what the McCain, Palin campaign has to say about these latest Democratic to NC. How long will it be until McCain or Palin visits NC to campaign and refute their foes claims.

 

AT

NC Senate Race

In a recent North Carolina poll, an interesting trend emerges: Senator Obama has a lot of work to do if he wants to win the state, and Elizabeth Dole is stumbling towards the end of the senate race against her opponent, Kay Hagan.

First, Elizabeth Dole’s predicament.  Earlier this year, she held a double digit lead in the polls.  However, she has steadily dropped, along with her approval rating in the Senate.  It doesn’t help that registered Democrats outnumber registered Republicans by 4:3.  However, Dole has excellent name recognition, which should help her win a large chunk of votes.  Also, she is known for focusing on local North Carolina issues (always a good thing come election year).  Unfortunately for her, and luckily for Ms. Hagan, is that Senator Dole is a Republican and has to deal with all the baggage that goes along with that.

A quick note about Obama: his favorable rating in the poll is at a miserable 37%, compared to 54% for McCain.  I don’t doubt that Obama will make good use of his massive fundraising ability, but he needs to start before it’s too late.

September 17 Poll Data

Looking at current poll data from such polling groups as American Research Group and Survey USA, McCain leads in every poll (http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008/north-carolina-2.html). However, the lead McCain currently carries is marginal and insignificant when considering any margin of error. 

Many of the polls I looked at included a percentage of individuals who remained ‘unsure’ as to who they will vote for. Most, if not all of these polls could be swayed in favor of Obama if more than half these unsure minds swung towards the Obama ticket. 

Even though North Carolina has voted Republican in 9 out of the past 10 Presidential elections, many Republicans are looking for a change and the current Republican run in office hasn’t shed much hope for Republican future in the White House.

North Carolina isn’t considered one of the big battleground states, but shouldn’t be overlooked. 

AT